Technology and Risk
Chapter 15
Technology and Risk
Technology is the application of scientific knowledge and methods to the solution of societal problems
We tend to think of technology as a positive force for improving our lives and the world
However, no technology is without some degree of risk and/or cost
If it is believed that the benefits to be gained from the use of technology will far outweigh any minimal risk, the decision to proceed with the technology’s development and application is an obvious one.
X-Rays
X-rays were discovered in the 1890 and the human skeleton could now be view without cutting the skin
In the 1950s, this technology was used in shoes stores to see if shoes properly fit
It was at this time that is was discovered that x-rays could also damage human cells and was promptly banned except for medical use
Radium
From 1917-1927, the US Radium Corporation hired workers to paint radium-lighted watches and instruments which would glow in the dark
Many of the painters subsequently died due to radiation sickness, as they used their mouths to form a point on the radium tainted brushes
In NYC the Radium Dial Company is now a 1/3 acre lot in Queens contaminated with 226 radon, and gamma ray emissions. It sits within a 3-mile radius of over 300,000 residents and only 10 feet from the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway
In 1989 the EPA determined that the site “poses a significant treat to human health and the environment”
Chlorinating Water Supplies
In underdeveloped countries throughout the world one primary causes of disease and death is bacteria-borne illness due to contamination of public drinking supplies with sewage
According to the World Health Organization, water-borne disease is responsible for approximately 5 million deaths a year, or over 13,000 deaths every day, in developing countries
Developed countries protect against such water-borne illnesses by upgrading both the water delivery supply and sewage disposal system
According to the Chlorine Chemical Council, the chlorination of public water supply and the resulting elimination of disease-causing microorganisms have played a key role in increasing the American citizens’ life expectancy from 45 years in 1900 to about 76 years today
Research in the early 1970s began to provide evidence that in addition to its germicidal effects, chlorine in municipal water systems also combine chemically with organic molecules in the water to form disinfection by-products or DBPs
The known DBPs are suspected carcinogens or teratogens
But, in Albany NY prior to the turn of the century the death rate from water-borne typhoid was 110 per 100,000 of the total population
When water filtration technology was added in 1900, the death rate dropped to 20 per 100,000
After the addition of chlorination the death rate dropped to zero and has remained there ever since
The concentration of chlorine is carefully regulated and the EPA regulates limits of human exposure to DBPs
Cooking Steaks
The bacterial contamination of our food supply is inevitable and presents another route for the transmission of disease and death
Every year approximately 30 million Americans become ill due to contaminated food, with up to 9,000 actually dying
By cooking our food at high temperatures, particularly meat, we can kill all or a majority of bacteria that may contaminate it
But by heating meat to these high temperatures, amino acids molecules in protein produces byproducts known as heterocyclic amines (HCA) and these have been shown to cause a variety of cancers.
But the risk of morbidity or mortality due to food borne illness is MUCH higher than the minimal risk of inducing cancer through the presence of HCAs
Irradiation of Food
Irradiation of food by gamma rays or electron beams, within a shielded facility, kills most harmful bacteria, insects, and parasites
The FDA has approved irradiation of a variety of foods including, meats, poultry, fresh fruits and vegetables, and spices.
The changes produced by irradiation may cause the loss of some nutrients but no more than other processing methods
Sources of Technological Risks
No system or component is infallible or unerring
The risk of some unfavorable or detrimental event occurring as the result of a technological application can be attributed to one or any combination of the following sources
Hardware factors
Human factors
Organizational factors
External social factors
Hardware Factors
Physical failure of the technology or one of its component parts - equipment failure
Space shuttle Challenger – faulty O-rings that seal the gaps between rocket sections
TWA flight 800 blew up off coast of Long Island in 1996 due to poor design of the center fuel tank
Human Factors
Human factors refer to people related sources of risk
Three mile island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania was damaged due to “operator error”, the operator misinterpreted several control readings and failed to open critical valves
This accident initially involved hardware factors, but the operator failed to realize the extent of the problem for at least two and a half hours
Organizational Factors
Source of risk related to operational and regulatory portions of the system
The space ship challenger disaster was not completely due to faulty O-rings but to the organizational structure of NASA
Knowing that the rubber of O-rings were subject to losing their flexibility at cold temperature and NASA set 40 degrees F as the minimum temperature
The night before the launch the temperatures fell to 8 degrees F.
The fight was allowed to proceed due to the organizational structure of NASA and its dependence on politically influenced funding.
External Social Factors
Factors completely outside of the technology itself or the human or organizational systems related to it
The disaster of 9/11 although partially due to technological failures of the building design, escape systems, and fire control mechanisms, was precipitated by a terrorist attack influenced by hatred and politics, external social factors
Controlling Risk
Automobiles
Provide numerous social benefits related to the speed at which we can move people and materials over great distances at relatively low costs
Risks and costs include accident related injuries and death and significant environmental pollution
About 45,000 people lose their lives because of automobiles each year and about 250,000 people are injured because of automobiles
In the early part of the last century the automobile was thought to be the solution to the pollution of our streets by horses depositing tons of manure and millions of gallons of urine each day on the streets of NYC
We limit the risk by regulation in design and use
Chapter Goals
Be conscious of the fact that every technology has associated risks
Weigh risks in terms of benefits
Identify sources of technological risk
Population and Growth
Chapter 13
What can we do?
There are inherent limitations within our biosphere that limits its capacity to support life.
What can we do as a society and as individuals to create a sustainable environment?
Exponential Growth
The rate of growth of the human population has slowed to about 1.4% per year
All five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution, and consumption of renewable resources are increasing
There are two positive feedback loops producing exponential growth - population and industrial capital
The constraints that act to stop exponential growth are negative feedback loops, which become stronger as we approach the carrying capacity of the Earth – famine, pollution, and depletion of natural resources.
Club of Rome
In 1970, the Club of Rome commissioned a computer study to be done at MIT examining the questions dealing with the growth of human population and global economy during the next century.
The Club of Rome is a group of scientists, economists, businessmen, international high civil servants, heads of state, and former heads of state who pool their different experiences from a wide range of backgrounds to come to a deeper understanding of world problems
Questions to be answered included
What will happen if the growth in the world’s population continues unchecked?
What will be the environmental consequences if economic growth continues at its current pace?
What can be done to ensure an economy that provides sufficiently for all and that also fits the physical limits of the Earth?
World3 Model
The group at MIT constructed a computerized global model, World3
The World3 model exists as equations on a computer
It was designed to understand the role of humans as our population approaches the world’s carrying capacity.
It provides us with insights as to what actions should be taken as we approach that limit so as to avoid a dramatic collapse.
World3 model predicted that under the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion, the limits to growth would be reached sometime within the next 100 years with the result that there would be a sudden and uncontrolled decline in both population and industrial capacity
It is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future.
The sooner we begin working to attain stability the greater will be our chance of success
Carrying Capacity of the Earth
Food is a limiting factor on the population, the amount of food on earth depends directly on the sun’s energy reaching the Earth
How large a population can the Earth sustain based on the total amount of calories per day available as food
The carrying capacity of the Earth is simply the world food production per day divided by the calorie requirement of a well fed person
18 billion people can theoretically be sustained on the surface of the Earth each day
The current population is 6.8 billion
Population Growth and Resources Impact
The sooner we begin working to attain stability the greater will be our chance of success
Population growth drives the requirements for food, water, housing and consumer goods
Food
Greater food production will be necessary to sustain the larger population. More land will be needed for food production and the yield increased
In the past 20 years cultivated land has decreased because of urbanization, erosion, salt buildup and desertification.
Water
Although water usage is stabilizing in industrial countries, it is still found to be growing in developing countries
Within a few decades many countries will confront limits on their water supplies.
Desalinization and detoxification may be a solution for some and conservation for others
Forest
The world’s tropical forests will be used in 30 years if tropical deforestation increases exponentially at the same rate as population growth
In many cases deforestation is followed by erosion, which prevents regrowth
Fossil Fuels
There is only so much easily accessible oil, natural gas, coal, etc. available underground
Usage is growing exponentially and the resource is limited
A solution is to convert to more efficient energy use to slow down the growth and to move to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power
Materials
Extraction of various material from the ground such as iron, copper, aluminum and lead results in a drop-off in quality
Recycling may help conserve this resource
Pollution
Pollution is rising worldwide
Some species have disappeared as a result, and pollutants decrease the amount of clean water available
Pollution can cause a large-scale breakdown of ecosystems and it is in our best interest to control it as much as possible
Industry
Industry uses energy, materials, water and wood.
It creates pollution
Either we have to slow down its growth or come up with technological innovations to decrease its needs
World3 Model
20 years later the findings were basically the same
The 1992 report warns
This decline is not inevitable
We need comprehensive revisions in policies and practices that perpetuate growth in in material consumption and population
We need to increase the efficiency with which materials and energy are used
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