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Uncertainty, "Black Swans," Wicked Problems, and the 2008 Financial Crisis

Required Reading:

· Holmes, Jaime, Nonsense: The Power of Not Knowing

· Chapter 5: Overtested USA: When to Resist Momentum

· Chapter 6: The Hemline Hassle: A Strategy of Ignorance

· Conklin, Jeff. 2001-2010.  "Wicked Problems and Social Complexity." CogNexus Institute

· Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2008. Book chapter excerpt from  The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable . Published in The N.Y. Times

· Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. 2011. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report. Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office 

· Conclusions of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

· Short YouTube Videos 

· The Awareness Test

· The Observation Test

Week 7

1.  Taleb asserts, “Black swan logic makes  what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know.”   Holmes observes, “the illusion of knowing is more dangerous than not knowing” (p128).  This places what we do know at the bottom of the hierarchy.  Discuss how the “illusion of knowing” led to the 2008 financial crisis.  

2.  The 2008 financial crisis was “socially complex.”  Individuals, financial and mortgage institutions, and governments contributed to the crisis.  And, many of the same players collaborated to resolve the crisis.  Was the 2008 financial crisis a “wicked problem” as well?  Discuss which characteristics of a “wicked problem,” if any, apply to the crisis.

220 words detailed and covering all aspects of the question

RESPONSES WOULD BE SENT LATER ON IN THE WEEK