Data

Week	#Flashdrives
1	6
2	7
3	6
4	5
5	7
6	5
7	6
8	6
9	8
10	9
11	9
12	7
13	5
14	6
15	8
16	8
17	9
18	7
19	6
20	8
21	5
22	7
23	6
24	8
25	10
26	9
27	7
28	8
29	7
30	6

Regression Output

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.3030051829
R Square	0.0918121408
Adjusted R Square	0.0593768602
Standard Error	1.33523753
Observations	30
ANOVA
	df	SS	MS	F	Significance F
Regression	1	5.0466073415	5.0466073415	2.8306257539	0.1036030452
Residual	28	49.9200593252	1.7828592616
Total	29	54.9666666667
	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Lower 95.0%	Upper 95.0%
Intercept	6.2988505747	0.5000101492	12.5974454408	0	5.2746262141	7.3230749354	5.2746262141	7.3230749354
X Variable 1	0.0473859844	0.0281649303	1.6824463599	0.1036030452	-0.0103072599	0.1050792288	-0.0103072599	0.1050792288
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation	Predicted Y	Residuals	Standard Residuals
1	6.3462365591	-0.3462365591	-0.2638969529
2	6.3936225436	0.6063774564	0.4621729244
3	6.441008528	-0.441008528	-0.3361309015
4	6.4883945124	-1.4883945124	-1.1344347274
5	6.5357804968	0.4642195032	0.3538220016
6	6.5831664813	-1.5831664813	-1.206668676
7	6.6305524657	-0.6305524657	-0.4805987986
8	6.6779384501	-0.6779384501	-0.5167157729
9	6.7253244346	1.2746755654	0.9715409561
10	6.772710419	2.227289581	1.6976108334
11	6.8200964034	2.1799035966	1.6614938591
12	6.8674823878	0.1325176122	0.1010031816
13	6.9148683723	-1.9148683723	-1.4594874959
14	6.9622543567	-0.9622543567	-0.7334176186
15	7.0096403411	0.9903596589	0.7548391104
16	7.0570263255	0.9429736745	0.7187221361
17	7.10441231	1.89558769	1.4447920135
18	7.1517982944	-0.1517982944	-0.1156986641
19	7.1991842788	-1.1991842788	-0.91400249
20	7.2465702633	0.7534297367	0.574254239
21	7.2939562477	-2.2939562477	-1.7484232902
22	7.3413422321	-0.3413422321	-0.2601665612
23	7.3887282165	-1.3887282165	-1.0584703871
24	7.436114201	0.563885799	0.4297863418
25	7.4835001854	2.5164998146	1.9180430708
26	7.5308861698	1.4691138302	1.1197392449
27	7.5782721542	-0.5782721542	-0.4407514326
28	7.6256581387	0.3743418613	0.2853184447
29	7.6730441231	-0.6730441231	-0.5129853812
30	7.7204301075	-1.7204301075	-1.3112892071

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

Y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 6 7 6 5 7 5 6 6 8 9 9 7 5 6 8 8 9 7 6 8 5 7 6 8 10 9 7 8 7 6 Predicted Y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 6.3462365591397845 6.3936225435669263 6.4410085279940672 6.488394512421209 6.5357804968483499 6.5831664812754909 6.6305524657026327 6.6779384501297736 6.7253244345569154 6.7727104189840563 6.8200964034111973 6.8674823878383391 6.91486837226548 6.9622543566926218 7.0096403411197628 7.0570263255469037 7.1044123099740455 7.1517982944011864 7.199184278 8283282 7.2465702632554692 7.2939562476826101 7.3413422321097519 7.3887282165368928 7.4361142009640346 7.4835001853911756 7.5308861698183165 7.5782721542454583 7.6256581386725992 7.673044123099741 7.720430107526882

X Variable 1

Solution

Submit your statistical output from Excel, which should include values for a slope, y-intercept, regression equation, r, and R2.
Output is Regression output.
Slope	0.0473859844
Y intercept	6.2988505747
Regression Equation	6.29885057471264 + 0.047386 X				X is in weeks		Ouput is number of defective flash drives
R	0.0918121408
R square	0.0593768602

Past and Future Growth of Your Industry

If your business plan’s figures are far out of line with industry averages, you need to explain in your plan how you account for the variation.

Industry Maturity Industries don’t remain static; they may change dramatically over time. Generally, the life cycle of an industry comprises four phases: 1) new, 2) expanding, 3) stable, and 4) declining. The last phase, decline, is not inevitable; many long-standing, stable industries show no sign of decline.

Industries have distinct attributes in different stages of maturity. Even industries that seem closely related are quite dissimilar based on their development stage. For instance, the soft drink industry is relatively stable, and a few major companies dominate the field. Little room exists for newcomers, and it would be extremely expensive to try to compete. On the other hand, the newer bottled water industry has lots of competition and variation.

The Industry Maturity Chart on page 90 describes characteristics of industries in the four different stages. Examine the chart and the descriptions of the growth stages, then list the maturity characteristics of your industry and the opportunities and risks they represent on the worksheet on page 89.

There are, obviously, many advantages to being a brand name, but it is not easy to achieve. First, it is usually expensive. You must spend a great deal of money on marketing and advertising simply to get your name well- known. And, although it seems like some brand names develop overnight, building a brand is hard to achieve quickly.

Building a truly strong brand is more than just a matter of name recognition. A real brand gives customers trust in your products and services because you are consistent in quality, price, service, or convenience — over time. This doesn’t mean you have to promise the highest quality or the lowest price — it only means being consistent, so the customer can depend on what they’ll get from that brand. McDonald’s doesn’t have to promise gourmet food to be a reliable brand. It built its brand by giving customers the same experience, the same type and quality of food, the same cleanliness, at every one of its restaurants.

If your goal is to build a brand name, you have to look at those factors that you are able to offer and deliver to your customers consistently and repeatedly over time, making certain you put sufficient company resources into supporting those factors.

Risk Every business involves risk. Only the most naive and inexperienced entrepreneurs believe their business “just can’t fail.” Use this section to sit down and think through the various risks facing your new endeavor.

This task might seem daunting. So why shake your enthusiasm? Because risk assessment helps you prepare for and prevent threats to your success. If, for instance, you identify a major risk as the possibility that a well-funded competitor will enter the market, you will want to take steps to quickly secure key customer contracts or line up significant funding yourself.

“When I started out, there were only three broadcast networks, and I thought, that can’t be all. I thought, I’ll start my own network! I have to figure out how to do this. I like being on the edge; I’m a risk taker.”

Kay Koplovitz Chair, Kate Spade

Evaluating your risks isn’t meant to be an exercise in fear (although if you are intimidated by the risks involved, then perhaps you are not yet ready to start your business). Many entrepreneurs think that if they describe the risks they’re likely to encounter, they’ll scare off potential investors. Quite the contrary is true. For all but the least sophisticated investors, an evaluation of risks shows them you’re willing to take a cool, hard look at the situation facing you, and you understand the scope of the threats to your success. It reassures investors that, because you understand the risks involved, you’re more likely to take steps to counter those threats.

What Kinds of Risk? It’s not just a matter of high risk or low risk. It’s also what kinds of risk. Some risks are more tolerable or more important to different investors — and to you. The key types of risk facing companies include:

■   Market Risk: that the market will not respond to your products or services, because either there is no real market need or the market isn’t yet ready. Market risks are very difficult to overcome.

■   Competitive Risk: that the competitive situation will change dramatically, and new competitors will enter the market and/or established competitors will reposition their products or services to more effectively take you on. You should carefully think through how other competitors might respond to your entering the market and not assume that the competitive environment will remain the same.

■   Technology Risk: that the technology or product design and engineering won’t work, or won’t work as well as you envision. This may be critically important to your company’s success, or it may be totally unimportant, depending on the nature of your company, its products/services, customers, and the like. If your business faces substantial technology risks, what is your ability to quickly and effectively improve the technology?

“The apparel business is a tough operational business. Manufacturing, shipping, delivering, making sure everything’s on time. There’s a tremendous amount of competition, and things get hot and then get cool.”

Kay Koplovitz Chair, Kate Spade

Product Risk: that the product won’t materialize, won’t be finished in time, or won’t work as promised. This is very similar to

■   the above, only with nontechnology products or services. ■   Execution Risk: that you won’t be able to effectively manage the roll-out and growth of the company because management

isn’t sufficiently capable, the time allowed isn’t adequate, operations aren’t in place, and other reasons. You should be able to demonstrate specific steps you are taking to reduce or eliminate such risks.

■   Capitalization Risk: that you’ve badly underestimated costs or over-estimated income, and you will run out of money. The best way to avoid this risk is to budget realistically and get enough funding so you do not run out of cash prematurely. Look for investors who have the ability and inclination to offer additional funds as your company progresses.

■   Global Risk: that, when doing business internationally, you may encounter unanticipated situations that will interrupt or stop your ability to do business, reach your market, or receive supplies.

Use the Risk Evaluation worksheets on pages 151–152 to assess the risks your business faces domestically and internationally.

Balancing Risks & Opportunities Once you’ve outlined your risks, you may feel overwhelmed. But while there are many risks, there are also substantial rewards — otherwise why are you bothering to start this endeavor?

A typical method to illustrate the balance between risks and opportunities is to develop a “SWOT” chart, delineating your company’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (thus “S.W.O.T.”) This is a good exercise for quickly sizing up your company’s position.

Complete the “SWOT” grid on page 153. Be sure to include both internal and external factors as well as current and potential ones.

SWOT: Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats

In each appropriate box below, list your company’s strengths or weaknesses, and the opportunities or threats facing it.

Strategic Position Is More than Advertising Don’t be confused: A true strategic position is not the same as an advertising campaign or slogan. Advertising and marketing are means to achieving your strategic position — they help you create the image consistent with your position and get your message to potential customers. Defining a strategic position is about creating a meaningful place for yourself — a position — in the market.

How does Coca-Cola differentiate itself from Pepsi? Very little of the difference is based on the qualities of the products or the market segment they are targeting. The two companies may have incorporated some operational differences, but they differentiate themselves primarily on the basis of advertising — not strategic positioning. When Snapple came along, it created a totally different position for itself in the market. Snapple didn’t try to compete head-to-head with Coke and Pepsi; instead, it looked for a different segment of the soft drink market: the non-cola, non-carbonated soft drink.

“With the consolidation of department stores, we knew our margins were going to be squeezed. They’re doing a lot of their own products, putting their products in the best display spaces. We knew we had to change our strategic direction.”

Kay Koplovitz Chair, Kate Spade

If a luxury car company that has sold primarily to older consumers decides to market to younger drivers, it won’t be enough to take the same kind of car they’ve been making and devise a clever advertising campaign. The product itself — in this case a car — has to be redesigned to fit the tastes of their target market. It may have to be smaller, sportier, faster, with more electronic gadgets. Not only will the marketing materials need to be geared toward a younger audience, but the salespeople will have to be trained to learn that the 20-something kid in the rock band T-shirt may not be just killing time with a test drive but may actually be a techie millionaire ready to buy.

What Kinds of Strategic Positions Are There? What makes a company different? Is it the nature of its products or services? The quality or cost? The geographic area or type of customers served? Perhaps the company has proprietary products customers can’t find elsewhere.

There are many ways to distinguish yourself from your competitors, including:

■   Customer Perception Factors ■   Market Segment ■   Market Share ■   Operational and/or Technological Advantages ■   Proprietary Products, Technology, Abilities, or Relationships ■   Sales Channels ■   Business Model ■   First-Mover Advantage ■   Lean Start-Up ■   Branding

Each of these strategic approaches offers opportunities but also poses pitfalls. And they may be related: If you are positioning your company on the basis of low price, you’ll also need operational efficiencies to reduce costs or else you won’t be able to survive against competitors with higher profit margins.

Customer Perception Factors This is the “better, faster, cheaper” approach, based on how customers distinguish your company and its products and services from the competition. Some key customer perception factors are below:

WHAT SETS YOU APART?

Concentrating on customer perception factors is the most typical method of attempting to differentiate yourself from the competition. They seem the simplest, most straightforward way to compete. Surprisingly, they may be the most difficult to achieve and maintain. For instance, competing on the basis of price is often perilous. While it is easy — in the short run — to attract customers on the basis of low price, highly price-sensitive customers are the most fickle, quickly tempted away by the next company offering a lower price. Once you appear to be attracting a significant portion of the market, well-funded established competitors can lower prices (even if they have to take a loss) to compete temporarily until you are no longer able to sustain your losses.

Other perception factors may be harder to “prove” to the market. You may have to spend a lot of money on marketing and advertising to get customers to realize that you offer additional features, more convenience, or higher quality. Once you do, however, you may be able to build a loyal and committed customer base that appreciates the differences between you and your competition.

“You have to understand the consumers’ need. What’s their pain? Why do they need to change? Solve that pain, and then get that message out.”

Andrew Anker Venture Capitalist

Statement of Mission

Describe your company’s philosophy in terms of the areas listed below.

QSO 510 Scenario Analysis Guidelines and Rubric Knowledge of statistics is important foundational knowledge for analyzing data. Equally important is what you can do with that information. An overarching goal of this course is to consider how statistics informs decision making, or data-based decision making. Throughout this course, you will be asked to make decisions and then to consider the impact of those choices. Whether in stock trading, in car sales, or on the production floor, the decisions you make as a business professional should be directly influenced by the data available to you. Careful analysis is the key to data-based decision making. Each module task below provides a scenario and a list of questions for you to answer using data-based decision making.

 Module Two: Stock Options

 Module Four: Cars Sold

 Module Five: Computer Chips

 Module Six: Vacation T ime

 Module Eight: Promotion

 Module Ten: Printing Equipment Specifically, the following critical elements must be addressed:

I. Main Elements II. Integration and Application

III. Analysis IV. Critical Thinking Guidelines for Submission: Your analysis of the scenario must be submitted as a 1- to 2-page Microsoft Word document with double spacing and 12-point Times New Roman font. Instructor Feedback: This activity uses an integrated rubric in Blackboard. Students can view instructor feedback in the Grade Center. For more information, review these instructions.

Rubric Critical Elements Exemplary (100%) Proficient (90%) Needs Improvement (70%) Not Evident (0%) Value

Main Elements Thoroughly addresses each of the main elements found in the individual prompts and guiding questions for each scenario

Adequately addresses all of the main elements found in the individual prompts and guiding questions for each scenario

Addresses most but not all of the main elements found in the individual prompts and guiding questions for scenario

Addresses less than half of the main elements found in the individual prompts or guiding questions for each scenario

20

Integration and Application

All of the course concepts are correctly applied

Most of the course concepts are correctly applied

Some of the course concepts are correctly applied

Does not correctly apply any of the course concepts

20

Analysis Meets “Proficient” and the quality of the statistical analysis is above minimum quality standards for competent

Represents competency with respect to the statistical analysis

Statistical analysis is evident, but does not meet standards

Statistical analysis is not evident 40

Critical Thinking Draws insightful conclusions that are thoroughly defended with peer-reviewed evidence and examples

Draws informed conclusions that are justified with evidence based on peer-reviewed research

Draws logical conclusions, but does not defend with evidence based on peer-reviewed research

Does not draw logical conclusions 10

Articulation of Response

Submission is free of errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, and organization and is presented in a professional and easy to read format

Submission has no major errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, or organization

Submission has major errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, or organization that negatively impact readability and articulation of main ideas

Submission has critical errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, or organization that prevent understanding of ideas

10

Earned Total 100%