National Business Sytems
Poland
Introduction
Capital: Warsow
Region: Central Europe
Prime Minister: Donald Tusk
President: Bronislaw Komorowski (As in Aug 6, 2010 – 5 year term)
Government: Parliamentary Republic, Democracy
Key Relations: strong ally of US, member of EU,
IMF, NATO, WTO, Schengen
Population: 38,54 million
Currency: zloty
(1€ = between 4.20 and 4.25 Zloty)
Official Language: Polish
Strengths :
EU Membership, Eurozone Accession
Next Elections 2015- Civic party can implement austerity measures if needed
Weakness:
Political Conflict/discontment within the country
Opportunities:
Scope for integration with other Euro Atlantic institutions
Slim changes for presidential Vito
Threats :
Undertaking deep fiscal consolidation, could threaten and weaken the support of Civic platform party .
Austerity Measures
Political
Prevalent Issues
Other Political Issues
Fate of Euro
Key alliance with US, deteriorating with Russia
EU- Poland Relations
Projections
European Middle power within the EU
Ties with the EU
Faltering Economic growth
Assertive Power Player
Economic Activity GDP growth = 1,5% in 2013
Trade balance deficit = -0,1% of GDP in 2012
Domestic demand collapse
High unemployment (14,2% in 2013)
Stagnant wage growth
Imports ↘ (in consumer goods +++)
Inflation (2,7% in 2013) and interest rate ↘
but divergence in the Monetary Policy Council
39% of imports = capital goods (raw materials, machinery, transport equipment…)
Weak external demand
Stagnant Eurozone growth
Eurozone = main trading partner (since 1995: double trade)
Threat
Exports ↘
Exports to non-EU countries still strong (↗ by 22,5% in 2013, Feb and represent 1/3 of total exports)
Fiscal policy
Budget deficit of 3,9% of GDP in 2012
Defeat: the EU’s 3,0% of GDP budget target
BUT success: reduction of the budget deficit from 7,9% in 2010 to 3,9% in 2012
Banking sector
Sufficiently robust to weather imminent trains
Limited consumer loan growth
Weak consumer mortgage growth
Domestic house prices ↘ by 1,4% in Jan 2013
Housing market = oversupplied
Number of non-performing loans ↗ (unemployment)
Corporate lending = stable
better if eurozone situation improves and business confidence increases
Business Environment
Strenghts
Implementation of pro-business reforms
In gerenal foreign businesses are permitted unrestricted owenrship of Polish assets
Weaknesses
FDI per capita remains considerably low
Inefficient court system (red tape, corruption)
Poor quality infrastructure
Business Environment
Opportunities
Low labour costs
Local capital markets are deepening
Link between Asia-Europe (Gdansk port)
Threats
"brain drain" migration
Eurozone recovery
Conclusion + Recommandations
Poland is one of the European countries that are the least affected by the economic crisis
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