• Project 3 (Geo.Simil.)

1. For Project 2, you will construct a proportionality model for one of the following scenarios. As a group (three or less), choose which of these scenarios (only one) that you would like to model.

2. Part A: Choose one of the above scenarios and do the following: (note: this is not for submission, but merely to get you started on the project):

a. Develop several possible Problem Identifications. Choose one and justify your choice. Hint: It should be one for which there is data provided to you to test your proportionality assumption.

b. List & briefly discuss the variables which influence the problem you have identified. Which do you think could be neglected in an initial analysis? Which appear to be critical?

3. Part B: After completing Part A, and within a few days, schedule a quick session with your instructor. During this session you should discuss your Part A solutions, and orally outline your approach to the problem. This approach includes the Model Development, i.e., the proportionality model itself. Normally, the session can be accomplished in less than 10 minutes.

4. Part C: SUBMISSION

a. Develop an explanatory model and prepare a report on your analysis. Your report should provide a discussion of each area of the Model Building Process (page 59 of text) and addresses the following specific topics:

1) Problem Identification statement

2) Make assumptions, identify and define variables

3) Develop the mathematical model based upon your assumptions.

4) State the final model form.

5) Test the model assumption of proportionality with the data. This is must be done with a graph. Discuss “how good” you think your model is.

6) State several strengths and weakness of the model that you designed.

7) Write a one page “executive summary” of your model results and put this as the first page after your title page.

8) Make a Title page.

b. Prepare a short presentation, about 10 minutes long. It should include the major assumptions, the final model, the proportionality graph, and any major strengths or weaknesses of the model.

As a minimum, your model development (step 3) should include :

a. Provide a brief appraisal of your model - how good do you think your assumptions are? How precise do you expect your results to be?

b. Include a graphical test of your model (submodels). A plot with discussion is REQUIRED.

c. Fit your model you developed with the data using the least squares criterion. Explain how you arrived at the coefficients. Discuss the meaning of the coefficient or coefficients.

d. Discuss how the different fitting criteria of the textbook could apply to your problem. If you could have chosen only one criteria, which one would you have chosen and why?

e. Answer all scenario-dependent questions!

Heart Rate - Birds

Warm-blooded animals use large quantities of energy to maintain body temperature because of the heat loss through the body surface. In fact, biologists believe that the primary energy drain on a resting warm-blooded animal is maintenance of body temperature.

a. Construct a model relating blood flow through the heart to body weight. Assume that the amount of energy available is proportional to the blood flow through the lungs, which is the source of oxygen. Assuming the least amount of blood needed to circulate, the amount of available energy will equal the amount of energy used to maintain the body temperature.

b. The following data relate weights of some type of birds to their heart rate measured in beats per minute. Construct a model that relates heart rate to body weight. Discuss the assumptions of your model. Use the data provided to check your model.

Bird Body Weight (g) Heart rate (Beats/min)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Canary 20 1000

Pigeon 300 185

Crow 341 378

Buzzard 658 300

Duck 1100 190

Hen 2000 312

Goose 2300 240

Turkey 8750 193

Ostrich 71000 60-70

(data from A.J. Clark, Comparative Physiology of the Heart,(New York, Macmillian, 1977), p 99.)

Data Preparation Example A

You should have 10 questions.

“How flexible is the agency with respect to your personal/family responsibilities.” The responses to this question shifted to one side of the scale. A majority of the respondents agreed that the agency is very flexible to personal/family responsibilities. 68.75% very flexible and 18.75% flexible. The median of the responses is 5, which is very flexible.

After reviewing the approaches to conceptual level analysis I decided to analyze using similar scale questions.

Response Patterns

For the conceptual level analysis I ranked similar questions as I felt this type of analysis applied to my survey questions the most. For the sake of this measurement, since 3 is completely neutral 3.5 would be the difference between positive and negative. It appears for the most part the results of the questions involving the agencies leadership are positive. The mean of the responses are all above 3.5, which is higher than neutral, or positive. On the questions that consider job and position the mean are below 3.5, or negative.

For the most part the opinions of the participants in my survey varied across the agency. If I were able to do smaller surveys on each individual section I bet I could get similar answers from each section in the agency. While there were differences of opinions on most of the questions there was one question in particular that most people agreed on. This was the question about the flexibility of the agency when it comes to personal responsibilities. The consensus was that not only is the agency flexible but most agreed that it was very flexible when it comes to family and personal matters.

I couldn’t help but notice that not everyone opted to write in ideas to improve the agency or brought up any issues that I may have left out. I actually got more write-in responses than I expected but it would have been nice to see more. It would also help to know why they didn’t write any comments.

Write-in Comments

As required for the survey, two of the job satisfaction questions ask for specific or additional comments. Question numbers nine and ten leave space for comments after the questions.

Question 9 asks: “What ideas do you think will improve the agency? Please list 1-3 ideas.” Twelve respondents gave 1-3 ideas and four respondents completely skipped the idea boxes. The ideas are listed here:

- “More interaction between different sections”

- “Better communication”

- “More training”

- “Consistency on direction of section”

- “Funding priorities in certain programs”

- “Improvement on Management”

- “Shut the agency down”

- “Send the agency back to DMA”

- “Fill the empty slots”

- “Deploy us at the rate the rest of PA deploys”

- “Change the location”

- “Shorter time required at the agency”

- “More events inclusive of family members”

- “We are a FOA not a wing and we need to act like it”

- “Less micro management”

- “Clear, concise ideas on what the end goal is”

- “Burn the office to the ground”

- “Give our jobs back to the Pentagon”

- “Send only experienced Airmen to the agency”

- “Allow members to do honor guard, FTAC and other special duties”

- “Shut it down”

- “Telecommuting”

- “Provide more in-house training especially of regular PA duties”

- “Use civilains instead of Airmen in Mrs. Hus section”

- “Improve Website”

- “Actual working wireless internet”

- “Bulldoze the remains”

- “Bring back AF News”

- “Alternate Schedules”

Question 10 asks: “What other issues, if any, need to be addressed in the agency?” Ten respondents chose not to write anything. I received 6 responses, two stating none or not applicable and four actual written responses. The four responses are:

- “I haven’t been here very long, and I’ve been in only one section. So, I’m not sure about the agency as a whole. As for my section, we run pretty efficiently due to the cooperation of the people that make up my section.”

- “Why we exist, no one knows.”

- “The military folks tour time should be longer than 3 years. By the time they get proficient at their job in the agency they get orders and PCS. This makes it really difficult for us that have been here and will be here for a while. We invest a lot of time into training.”

- “I think our biggest issue is that we are ran by civilians so there is almost no military structure.”

Summary

I often wonder how honest people are when filling out these types of surveys. After my coworkers completed the survey some of them asked me if I received their response. When I told them I didn’t know because everyone was labeled as respondent some of them were surprised at how anonymous it was. I know that any time I have filled out a similar survey I based my answers off of who was going to see them. If I was disgruntled and I wanted change I would write unfiltered answers but when our career field was deciding who to keep and who to release I answered my questions using the words to show how much I wanted to stay in my job and in the military. I realize I am not the only one who considers the repercussions while completing something like this.

One unique thing I considered while looking over these responses is the military rank structure. Those that outrank me might not want me seeing them “talk bad about leadership” or answer negatively on these questions, even if it was honest. The military is big on perception and rank. Higher ranking should never vent down the chain of command. If I am right in considering this then those that were the most honest with me would be the Airmen that I outrank and those holding that same rank as me.

Resources

SurveyMonkey, http://www.surveymonkey.com (last visited [May 31, 2014])

Qualtrics, http://www.qualtrics.com (last visited [May 31, 2014])

My position in the agency makes good use of my skills and abilities

Response Rate Strongly Disagree Disagree Neither Disagree Nor Agree Agree Strongly Agree 4.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 Response Percent Strongly Disagree Disagree Neither Disagree Nor Agree Agree Strongly Agree 0.25 0.125 0.1875 0.25 0.1875

How flexible is the agency with personal/family responsibilities

Response Rate Very Inflexible Inflexible Neither Inflexible Nor Flexible Flexible Very Flexible 0.0 1.0 1.0 3. 0 11.0 Response Percent Very Inflexible Inflexible Neither Inflexible Nor Flexible Flexible Very Flexible 0.0 0.0625 0.0625 0.1875 0.6875