Running head: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING
OPERATIONAL FORECASTING 3
Presenting A Forecasting System
Operations Management
Rasmussen College
Jeff Rover
03/16/18
Impact operational forecasting on organizations
Operational forecasting is used by an organization for production strategies. An organization can use operational forecasting as a method of estimation to ascertain the future outcome of the business. For effective operational forecasting, the process required for manufacturing and distribution of products should be involved. There are aspects that should be considered while undertaking operational efficiency. They include: creation, distribution, development, and production of products (Starr, & Gupta, 2017).
An organization receives valuable information that can be used for future decision making if it undertakes operational forecasting. It is important for an organization to know the driving forces behind production decision. Through operational forecasting, an organization will be able to know its market opportunities. This hence provides more information about the process design, capacity planning, aggregate planning, schedule and inventory management which is important for planning production. Without a proper operational forecasting, an organization can end up failing in its operations. Through operational forecasting, an organization can be able to commit its resources with an assurance of acquiring profit over a long period of time.
An organization can be able to develop new products if it undertakes operational forecasting since it will be able to identify future demand patterns. The economic condition of a country may have adverse effects on the operation of an organization. Therefore, when an organization undertakes operational forecasting, it will be able to know about the economic trends. In addition, an organization will be able to predict the new technological developments that may help in changing the operations of an organization (Jain, & Malehorn, 2005). Lastly, it will help an organization in forecasting the competition and the strategies that it can use to acquire market share.
References
Jain, C. & Malehorn, J. (2005). Practical guide to business forecasting. Flushing, N.Y: Graceway Pub. Co.
Starr, M. & Gupta, S. (2017). The Routledge companion to production and operations management. New York: Routledge.
Managing Crises and Response to NBC Incidents (Radiological and Explosive Materials And Mass Decon)
Discuss the potential for the use of chemicals – specifically Toxic Industrial Materials (TIMs) and Toxins.
Describe what TIMs and Toxins are and how they differ from weaponized Chemical Warfare Agents (CWAs) and biological agents. Discuss which concern you the most and why – from the standpoint of being able to prepare against the use of or mitigate the impact of the effects of the use of. State and clearly support your position.
Forum posts must be a minimum of 250 words
Crisis Communications: Death and Injury
1. Imagine such a game. What do you think of this game? Is it insensitive, does it trivialize the actions of killers or would it serve as a prodrome to those who play it, urging them to heed warning signs? How could an online game about the incident be made to be a lesson of understanding? Can a game be fun and educational/informative?
2. Why do political figures frequently lose their positions after scandals, but entertainers and sports figures, even if they go to jail, are often returned to their former positions as stars? If you were a publicist or agent to a celebrity, would you attempt to establish rules with your client, warn him/ her about appropriate and inappropriate behavior, or just bank your salary and let things occur?
This is a required post with a minimum of 500 words
Let's Blab about Jazz Composers
American jazz served as the foundation for rock and roll music. American jazz is explored in the discussion this week.
Select one jazz composer that is not covered in the course text. (These are some in the text: Scott Joplin, Sippie Wallace, Original Dixieland Jazz Band, Louis Armstrong, and Jelly Roll Morton.) Write the post from the perspective of the chosen composer. Discuss the style of his or her music. Explain how this composer influenced the development of jazz. Also show how his or her contributions have impacted popular American music.
Write from the composer's perspective--using first person voice. Do not just include a biography of the composer. The focus is to be on the style of music, contributions to the evolution of jazz music, and the impact this composer's music has had on popular American music.Include a YouTube link featuring a performance of the composer's music. Write in your own words. Cite all sources/provide links to your source.
Initial posts are to be a minimum of 250 words.
Microallocation
2. From Chapter 12, Darr (2011, p 306) writes "institutional ethics committees (IECs) should assess prospectively and retrospectively the ethical issues raised in competition, marketing, and managed care. They should review the ethical implications of competitions as it affects their patients, organization, and community". Consider yourself a member of the IEC. Identify two ways to ensure ethical issues are properly addressed.
Initial responses should be no less than 200 words in length not including your reference(s) and supported by at least two references (aside from the textbook).
Public Policy
Select one of the following public policy issues and assess its effectiveness. What changes may be needed and why?
1) Federal education policies (Every Student Succeeds, Race to the Top, and College- and Career-Ready Standards); 2) Corporate subsidies; 3) Outsourcing.
Forum responses should be 300-500 words.
Social Network Privacy Policies
Select a social network and summarize three important points you learned about its privacy policy for this environment. How does this apply to your personal information? Most of the privacy policies can be found at the bottom of the website.
Forum posts must be a minimum of 250 words
Forecasting System
Operations Management
Rasmussen College
- Jeff Rover
03/16/18
- Strategic forecasting is a significant tool that is used by organizations to grow and succeed.
- Strategic forecasting combines two functions: the adjustment of forecasts to support strategic goals and engaging operating strategies to make sure the forecasts are accurate (Conteh et al, 2014)
- Strategic forecasting enables companies to understand the market and the elements that are likely to cause shifts in the consumer’s needs and preferences.
By creating a detailed strategic forecasting system, managers are able to plan effectively for the future of the organization.
Strategic forecasting entails linking the strategic approach and forecasting an then treating it as one function. The strategic approach entails identifying a company’s long-term goals and coming up with effective initiatives to reach them. On the other hand, forecasting helps the company to identify variables in the business environment the company operates in.
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- A strategic forecast must define the goals and objectives of an organization.
- Strategic forecasting enables an organization to take advantage of the future trends and opportunities in the environment.
- Strategic forecasting should cover the specific options the company has for adjusting to the changes in the future.
- The strategic forecasting process should involve strategic decisions on how the company is going to take advantage of the future changes.
Defining the goals in strategic forecasting ensures that the organization gains a specific focus and hence enabling it to determine the best plan to approach the future.
part of the strategic forecast should take into consideration the options that will enable the organization to undertake its operations effectively in the future so as to fulfill its goals and objectives.
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- Forecasting is done based on human judgments and certain assumptions which may lead to wrong results.
- Lack of accuracy- it does not account for weekly or seasonal changes accurately.
- No specification of the concrete relationship between the future and past labor markets
If forecasting on labor models is applied for a long or extended period, then it may it may result in a reduction in customer services and increased overtime as a result of inaccuracy of information.
Forecasting on labor models fails to specify a detailed relationship between the present or past markets and the expected future markets. This is as a result of lack certainty on the performance of the future labor market.
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- Not applicable to a long period.
- It may be difficult to gather adequate reliable information on the future labor market such as psychological factors that may influence the market.
- Unforeseeable events may reduce the reliability of the information.
It is not applicable to a long period because it is difficult to have a steady growth rate in the labor market over an extended period of time.
There are certain unforeseeable events in the business environment that are likely to affect the labor market and likewise it becomes difficult to consider such events.
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- It is futuristic.
- Job planning contributes to the overall objectives of an organization.
- It is pervasive.
- It is a continuous process due to the changes in the internal and external environments.
- It is a vital function of an organization's management.
Job planning is futuristic meaning that managers tend to make predictions on how duties will be carried out.
Job planning is pervasive meaning that managers from all levels should be included and also the employees should be consulted.
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- Enables a company to identify opportunities.
- Reduction in operational costs.
- Enhances proper decision making in an organization.
- Enhances development of new products or services.
- Improves the quality of management.
By forecasting, an organization is able to look ahead and know how the market will change thus identifying business opportunities.
Forecasting allows an organization to predict how their products or services will perform and hence cutting down on irrelevant costs.
By forecasting, an organization is able to make decisions in accordance with the future business environment. For instance, a company is able to know what to do when there is a drop in sales.
Forecasting provides valuable information to an organization which is used to make strategic decisions.
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- Conteh, C., Greitens, T., Jesuit, D. & Roberge, I. (2014). Governance and Public Management : Strategic Foundations for Volatile Times. Hoboken: Taylor and Francis.
- Coveney, M. & Cokins, G. (2014). Budgeting, planning, and forecasting in uncertain times. New York, NY: American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA.
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