International Business Trade Manual (Portfolio) 2013-2014

Written Portion of Trade Manual Due __Wednesday, January 8, 2014_

Over the course of the semester each student will conduct research, with their partners, on a country of their choice (IB country). The country cannot be your country of origin, the USA and two groups cannot study one country (during the first few weeks of school groups will pick countries through a random process). The country must be a current trading partner with Canada.

Purpose of the Trade Manual

The purpose of the Trade Manual is to serve as a source of information to Canadian businesses and workers that wish to invest/expand/trade/work with the chosen IB country. This is the audience who you are writing and presenting your country too.

What the Trade Manual will look like

Students will design their Trade Manual in a professional manner. Basically, it will consist of 10 two-page double spaced (Times New Roman 12) reports, representing the course material studied throughout the semester. Each chapter section will be written in proper English with a complete response.

Chapters must be assigned to an individual group member who will be individually evaluated using the Final Trade Manual Rubric.

The layout/design of the manual must be visually attractive, use appropriate illustrations (pictures/graphs etc.) and include important trade/economic/ business information.

Trade Manual Days

We have been blessed with a room that allows wireless Internet access on a daily basis. Students need to be prepared on a daily basis to work on their Trade Manual project if time allows. There will also be 12 scheduled in-class research days and preparation periods for this project, which represents a portion of the total time required to complete this project. You will use Essay Style #3 when preparing your paper.

Plagiarism

See the student handbook for further explanation on plagiarism. Turnitin.com will be used to ensure that students have properly sourced their material and have written the paper in their own words. Note you may submit multiple times up to the due date!

Turnitin.com

Presentation

Each group will be required to make and present a 15- 20 minute PowerPoint presentation of their research findings. Presentation times will be set by mid semester. In your presentation, you will educate your teacher and fellow students, who are acting as potential exporters or importers, about the opportunities and risks associated with doing business in your trading partner country. You will be marked individually. However, I expect to see consistency throughout your presentation (see Presentation Trade Manual rubric sections Organization of Presentation and Communication).

Presentation Portion of Trade Manual Due __January 9-10, 2014_____ depending on your time slot

Check Points (Peer Assessment, Self-Assessment and Interviews)

Throughout the semester you will need to submit to me a rough draft on Turnitin.com one week after we complete Chapter 3, 6, and 9. For example, one week after we complete Chapter 3 you will need to submit your write up for chapters 1 to 3. Before you submit your check point you must have one of your class mates peer assess your paper. I will then mark your paper and ask you to self-reflect on what will be your next steps to success. Check Points must be submitted in order to hand in your final paper.

I will also be conducting interviews with each of the groups on a regular basis. At these interviews be prepared to discuss your research and group experience to this point. I want to see what research you have saved on your laptop and what steps you have taken to complete your paper.

Note: This assignment involves a great deal of internet research time. Throughout the course I will give you (and the textbook provides) important website to use for research purposes.

Chapter Topics to include in your trade manual:

Chapter 1 What is Trade?

1. The history of trade between your country and Canada

2. Include reasons why businesses in Canada trade with your country.

3. Apply question #24 on page 33 of our course textbook to your country.

4. How does your country help a Canadian businesses/worker enter their economy?

Chapter 2 Trade in the Modern World

1. What trade barriers exist in your country for Canadian businesses and workers? (include the type of products that trade freely into and out of your country and those that are restricted in their movement)

2. Find examples of Canadian businesses operating in your country that use the following methods: licensing agreement, exclusive distributor, franchise, joint venture, foreign subsidiary.

3. Describe your country’s currency. (include whether it is hard or soft, value compared to Canadian dollar, what factors impact the currency the most etc)

4. List examples of exports to and imports from Canada.

Chapter 3 What is Culture?

1. List three “Dos” and three “Taboos” in your country. Indicate why a businessperson should or should not use those actions or behaviours.

2. Compare the culture of Canada with the culture of your country. Discuss religion, geography (provide a map that includes major cities, mountains, and rivers) climate, politics and cultural history. Include important holidays, food preferences, style of dress, and so on.

3. What are the commonly practiced management and negotiation strategies of your country. Compare these practices to Canadian practices.

4. What is the business etiquette of your country? (see p 87)

Chapter 4 Economics and Politics

1. Use the criteria found in questions #20 and 21 on page 119 to compare your country to Canada.

2. List three products for which your country is best known. Describe either the competitive or absolute advantage that each of these product have.

3. In what ways does your country have advantages that will give it a competitive edge?

4. How do the competitive advantages offered by this country provide opportunities for rationalization (Chapter 3) of Canadian business operations? For example, is labour less expensive, making it efficient for a Canadian firm to build a plant in or source exports from this country?

Chapter 5 International Trade Agreements and Organizations

1. Identify the trade agreements between Canada and your country.

2. Find an example of a partnership or joint venture between a business in your selected country and a Canadian business.

3. Find out your country’s membership status and the role they play in the following international organizations: World Trade Organization, World Economic Forum, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, World Bank Group, and the International Monetary Fund.

4. What other trade agreements or organizations are part of your selected country’s trading agreements (for example APEC, NAFTA, EU, or bilateral agreements)? How do these agreements affect Canada’s status as a trading partner?

Chapter 6 Social Responsibility and NGOs

Find out whether any of the following issues are present in your country, and describe them briefly, using the following headings where appropriate: environment, product safety, workplace safety, sexual harassment, misuse of new technology, human rights, conflict of interest, bribes, graft, unauthorized payments and/or copyright infringement, etc (corruption), health and sell being, advertising content, privacy and security of company records, and treatment of labour (wages, conditions etc.)

Chapter 7 Marketing

1. What modifications would Canadian companies have to make to goods and services to adapt to the culture of your country? (ex. changing ingredients of packaged food products, avoiding certain colours or images on packaging, modifying the range of foods offered at a restaurant)

2. Identify the challenges a Canadian company may encounter with regard to ethics, values, language, and business practices in the various countries in which it operates.

3. Explain the importance of understanding your countries consumer differences (e.g. with regard to cultural norms, discretionary income, spending habits) when marketing.

4. Identify current strategies used by Canadian that are in your country’s market.

Chapter 8 Logistics

1. Describe the key factors (e.g., climate considerations, topography, and cost) that influence the ways in which a Canadian company may deliver its product within your country.

2. Identify the different logistics companies that exist in your country and explain the services they provide.

3. Compare the costs of shipping a product locally, nationally or internationally.

4. Provide an example of a Canadian company that uses outsourcing in your country.

Chapter 9 Canada and International Business

1. Describe Canadian companies that are leaders in your country and those industries in which Canadian companies have had success and give reasons for their success.

2. What factors are currently affecting the international competitiveness our your country?

3. List 3 products for which your country is best known. Describe either the competitive or absolute advantage that these products have.

4. What is the current state of productivity in your country? What are the contributing factors to your country’s current productivity?

Chapter 10 International Business Trends

1. Identify and analyze international business trends in your country and their influences on companies, industries, and career opportunities.

2. Analyze the impact of recent global events on business in your country.

3. What are the requirements for Canadians who want to study, travel or work in your country? (include passports, student visas and work permits)

4. Describe two or more protectionist activities that are taking place in your country? How successful are they?

Trade Manual Paper Rubric

Name: ________________________ Chapters Completed: _____________

Submit this Rubric with your final Trade Manual Rubric.

	Level 1 (10-12)	Level 2 (12-14)	Level 3 (14-16)	Level 4 (16-20)
Use of Business terminology (K/U) Business Content	-rarely uses correct terminology - content rarely reflects business understanding	- sometimes uses correct terminology - content sometimes reflects business understanding	- generally uses correct terminology - content usually reflects business understanding	- always or almost always uses correct terminology - content reflects thorough business understanding
Internet research and internet reference page (see Essay Style Guide #3)	- little research provided with improper reference	-some research provided with some proper reference	- research provided usually provided with proper reference	- proper research provided with proper reference
Communication (Reword questions and appropriate length of response)	- rare use of effective rewording of questions and length of response	- some use of effective rewording of questions and length of response	- usually uses effective rewording of questions and length of response	- effective rewording of questions and length of response
Communication of information and ideas	Communicate information and ideas with limited clarity or consistency	Communicate information and ideas with some clarity and consistency	Communicate information and ideas with considerable clarity and consistency	Communicate information and ideas with a high degree of clarity, and consistency with confidence
Report Format (see Report Format Rubric)
Totals /100

BBB 4M

Presentation – Trade Manual

Name: ___________________ Chapters: __________

Your presentation must last between 15 and 20 minutes (5-6 minutes per student), including question and answer time. Note an additional setup time of 5 minutes is permitted.

Communication	Level 1 (50-59%)	Level 2 (60-69%)	Level 3 (70-79%)	Level 4 (80-100%)
Use of Business terminology	-rarely uses correct terminology	- sometimes uses correct terminology	- generally uses correct terminology	- always or almost always uses correct terminology
Organization of presentation (Time element)	- presentation is rarely clear, consistent or logical	- presentation is somewhat clear, consistent & logical	- presentation is most often clear, consistent & logical	- presentation is always or almost always clear, consistent & logical
Business Content	- presentation rarely reflects business understanding	- presentation sometimes reflects business understanding	- presentation usually reflects business understanding	- presentation reflects thorough business understanding
Presentation Skills	- presenter’s voice is rarely clear	- presenter’s voice is somewhat clear	- presenter’s voice is usually clear	- presenter’s voice is always or almost always clear
Visual Aids	- visual aids are rarely used to enhance the presentation	- visual aids are sometimes used to enhance the presentation	- visual aids are usually used to enhance the presentation	- visual aids are consistently used to thoroughly enhance the presentation
Communication	- ideas are rarely stated clearly & rarely connected	- ideas are somewhat stated clearly & rarely connected	- ideas are clearly for the most part & the ideas mostly connect	- ideas are clearly stated clearly & ideas thoroughly connect
Audience Questions	- presenter is rarely able to respond to questions from the audience	- presenter is somewhat able to respond to questions from the audience	- presenter is generally able to respond to questions from the audience	- presenter is consistently able to respond to questions from the audience

Note: A student whose achievement is below Level 1 (50%) has not met the expectations for this assignment or activity.

Business Plan

OWNERS

Your Business Name

Address Line 1

Address Line 2

City, ST ZIP Code

Telephone

Fax

E‐Mail

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ............................................................................................ Section 0.

General Company Description ......................................................................... Section. 1.

Products and Services......................................................................................... Section. 2.

Operational Plan .................................................................................................. Section. 3.

Management and Organization ......................................................................... Section. 4.

Marketing Plan ..................................................................................................... Section. 5.

Personal Financial Statement ............................................................................ Section. 6.

Startup Expenses and Capitalization ................................................................ Section. 7.

Financial Plan ....................................................................................................... Section. 8.

Appendices ........................................................................................................... TBD

Refining the Plan .................................................................................................. TBD

Executive Summary

Write this section last.

We suggest that you make it two pages or fewer.

Include everything that you would cover in a five‐minute interview.

Explain the fundamentals of the proposed business: What will your product be? Who will your customers be? Who are the owners? What do you think the future holds for your business and your industry?

Make it enthusiastic, professional, complete, and concise.

If applying for a loan, state clearly how much you want, precisely how you are going to use it, and how the money will make your business more profitable, thereby ensuring repayment.

PLEASE NOTE: Be sure to label each section AND subsection. 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, etc..

Example: 3.1 Mission Statement (see below). Follow this type of pattern throughout the entire document.

SECTION 1

General Company Description

3.0 Description: What business will you be in? What will you do?

3.1 Mission Statement: Many companies have a brief mission statement, usually in 30 words or fewer, explaining their reason for being and their guiding principles.

1. Vision Statement:

2. Positioning Statement

3. Brand Promise

4. Mantra

Company Goals and Objectives: Goals are destinations—where you want your business to be. Objectives are progress markers along the way to goal achievement. For example, a goal might be to have a healthy, successful company that is a leader in customer service and that has a loyal customer following. Objectives might be annual sales targets and some specific measures of customer satisfaction.

Business Philosophy: What is important to you in business?

To whom will you market your products? (State it briefly here—you will do a more thorough explanation in the Marketing Plan section).

Describe your industry. Is it a growth industry? What changes do you foresee in the industry, short term and long term? How will your company be poised to take advantage of them?

Describe your most important company strengths and core competencies. What factors will make the company succeed? What do you think your major competitive strengths will be? What background experience, skills, and strengths do you personally bring to this new venture?

Legal form of ownership: Sole proprietor, Partnership, Corporation, Limited liability corporation (LLC)? Why have you selected this form?

SECTION 2

Products and Services

Describe in depth your products or services (technical specifications, drawings, photos, sales brochures, and other bulky items belong in Appendices).

What factors will give you competitive advantages or disadvantages? Examples include level of quality or unique or proprietary features.

What are the pricing, fee, or leasing structures of your products or services?

SECTION 3 Operational Plan

Explain the daily operation of the business, its location, equipment, people, processes, and surrounding environment.

Production

How and where are your products or services produced? Explain your methods of:

• Production techniques and costs

• Quality control

• Customer service

• Inventory control

• Product development

Location

What qualities do you need in a location? Describe the type of location you’ll have. Physical requirements:

• Amount of space

• Type of building

• Zoning

• Power and other utilities

Access:

Is it important that your location be convenient to transportation or to suppliers? Do you need easy walk‐in access?

What are your requirements for parking and proximity to freeway, airports, railroads, and shipping centers?

Include a drawing or layout of your proposed facility if it is important, as it might be for a manufacturer.

Construction? Most new companies should not sink capital into construction, but if you are planning to build, costs and specifications will be a big part of your plan.

Cost: Estimate your occupation expenses, including rent, but also including maintenance, utilities, insurance, and initial remodeling costs to make the space suit your needs. These numbers will become part of your financial plan.

What will be your business hours?

Legal Environment

Describe the following:

• Licensing and bonding requirements

• Permits

• Health, workplace, or environmental regulations

• Special regulations covering your industry or profession

• Zoning or building code requirements

• Insurance coverage

• Trademarks, copyrights, or patents (pending, existing, or purchased)

Personnel

• Number of employees

• Type of labor (skilled, unskilled, and professional)

• Where and how will you find the right employees?

• Quality of existing staff

• Pay structure

• Training methods and requirements

• Who does which tasks?

• Do you have schedules and written procedures prepared?

• Have you drafted job descriptions for employees? If not, take time to write some.

They really help internal communications with employees.

• For certain functions, will you use contract workers in addition to employees?

Inventory

• What kind of inventory will you keep: raw materials, supplies, finished goods?

• Average value in stock (i.e., what is your inventory investment)?

• Rate of turnover and how this compares to the industry averages?

• Seasonal buildups?

• Lead‐time for ordering?

Suppliers

Identify key suppliers:

• Names and addresses

• Type and amount of inventory furnished

• Credit and delivery policies

• History and reliability

Should you have more than one supplier for critical items (as a backup)? Do you expect shortages or short‐term delivery problems?

Are supply costs steady or fluctuating? If fluctuating, how would you deal with changing costs?

Credit Policies

• Do you plan to sell on credit?

• Do you really need to sell on credit? Is it customary in your industry and expected by your clientele?

• If yes, what policies will you have about who gets credit and how much?

• How will you check the creditworthiness of new applicants?

• What terms will you offer your customers; that is, how much credit and when is payment due?

• Will you offer prompt payment discounts? (Hint: Do this only if it is usual and customary in your industry.)

• Do you know what it will cost you to extend credit? Have you built the costs into your prices?

Managing Your Accounts Receivable

If you do extend credit, you should do an aging at least monthly to track how much of your money is tied up in credit given to customers and to alert you to slow payment problems. A receivables aging looks like the following table:

	Total	Current	30 Days	60 Days	90 Days	Over 90 Days
Accounts Receivable Aging

You will need a policy for dealing with slow‐paying customers:

• When do you make a phone call?

• When do you send a letter?

• When do you get your attorney to threaten?

Managing Your Accounts Payable

You should also age your accounts payable, what you owe to your suppliers. This helps you plan whom to pay and when. Paying too early depletes your cash, but paying late can cost you valuable discounts and can damage your credit. (Hint: If you know you will be late making a payment, call the creditor before the due date.)

Do your proposed vendors offer prompt payment discounts? A payables aging looks like the following table.

SECTION 4

Management and Organization

Who will manage the business on a day‐to‐day basis? What experience does that person bring to the business? What special or distinctive competencies? Is there a plan for continuation of the business if this person is lost or incapacitated?

If you’ll have more than 10 employees, create an organizational chart showing the management hierarchy and who is responsible for key functions.

Include position descriptions for key employees. If you are seeking loans or investors, include resumes of owners and key employees.

Professional and Advisory Support

List the following:

• Board of directors

• Management advisory board

• Attorney

• Accountant

• Insurance agent

• Banker

• Consultant or consultants

• Mentors and key advisors

SECTION 3 Marketing Plan

Market research - Why?

No matter how good your product and your service, the venture cannot succeed

without effective marketing. And this begins with careful, systematic research. It is very dangerous to assume that you already know about your intended market. You need to do market research to make sure you’re on track. Use the business planning process as your opportunity to uncover data and to question your marketing efforts. Your time

will be well spent.

Market research - How?

There are two kinds of market research: primary and secondary.

Secondary research means using published information such as industry profiles, trade journals, newspapers, magazines, census data, and demographic profiles. This type of information is available in public libraries, industry associations, chambers of commerce, from vendors who sell to your industry, and from government agencies.

Start with your local library. Most librarians are pleased to guide you through their business data collection. You will be amazed at what is there. There are more online sources than you could possibly use. Your chamber of commerce has good information on the local area. Trade associations and trade publications often have excellent industry‐specific data.

Primary research means gathering your own data. For example, you could do your own traffic count at a proposed location, use the yellow pages to identify competitors, and

do surveys or focus‐group interviews to learn about consumer preferences. Professional market research can be very costly, but there are many books that show small business owners how to do effective research themselves.

In your marketing plan, be as specific as possible; give statistics, numbers, and sources. The marketing plan will be the basis, later on, of the all‐important sales projection.

Economics

Facts about your industry:

• What is the total size of your market?

• What percent share of the market will you have? (This is important only if you think you will be a major factor in the market.)

• Current demand in target market.

• Trends in target market—growth trends, trends in consumer preferences, and trends in product development.

• Growth potential and opportunity for a business of your size.

• What barriers to entry do you face in entering this market with your new company? Some typical barriers are:

o High capital costs

o High production costs

o High marketing costs

o Consumer acceptance and brand recognition

o Training and skills

o Unique technology and patents

o Unions

o Shipping costs

o Tariff barriers and quotas

• And of course, how will you overcome the barriers?

• How could the following affect your company?

o Change in technology

o Change in government regulations

o Change in the economy

o Change in your industry

Product

In the Products and Services section, you described your products and services as you see them. Now describe them from your customers’ point of view.

Features and Benefits

List all of your major products or services. For each product or service:

• Describe the most important features. What is special about it?

• Describe the benefits. That is, what will the product do for the customer?

Note the difference between features and benefits, and think about them. For example, a house that gives shelter and lasts a long time is made with certain materials and to a certain design; those are its features. Its benefits include pride of ownership, financial security, providing for the family, and inclusion in a neighborhood. You build features into your product so that you can sell the benefits.

What after‐sale services will you give? Some examples are delivery, warranty, service contracts, support, follow‐up, and refund policy.

Customers

Identify your targeted customers, their characteristics, and their geographic locations, otherwise known as their demographics.

The description will be completely different depending on whether you plan to sell to other businesses or directly to consumers. If you sell a consumer product, but sell it through a channel of distributors, wholesalers, and retailers, you must carefully analyze both the end consumer and the middleman businesses to which you sell.

You may have more than one customer group. Identify the most important groups. Then, for each customer group, construct what is called a demographic profile:

• Age

• Gender

• Location

• Income level

• Social class and occupation

• Education

• Other (specific to your industry)

• Other (specific to your industry)

For business customers, the demographic factors might be:

• Industry (or portion of an industry)

• Location

• Size of firm

• Quality, technology, and price preferences

• Other (specific to your industry)

• Other (specific to your industry)

SWOT analysis is a strategic planning method used to evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses/Limitations, Opportunities, and Threats involved in a project or in a business venture. It involves specifying the objective of the business venture or project and identifying the internal and external factors that are favorable and unfavorable to achieve that objective. The technique is credited to Albert Humphrey, who led a convention at Stanford University in the 1960s and 1970s using data from Fortune 500 companies.

Setting the objective should be done after the SWOT analysis has been performed. This would allow achievable goals or objectives to be set for the organization.

· Strengths: characteristics of the business, or project team that give it an advantage over others

· Weaknesses (or Limitations): are characteristics that place the team at a disadvantage relative to others

· Opportunities: external chances to improve performance (e.g. make greater profits) in the environment

· Threats: external elements in the environment that could cause trouble for the business or project

Identification of SWOTs is essential because subsequent steps in the process of planning for achievement of the selected objective may be derived from the SWOTs.

First, the decision makers have to determine whether the objective is attainable, given the SWOTs. If the objective is NOT attainable a different objective must be selected and the process repeated.

Users of SWOT analysis need to ask and answer questions that generate meaningful information for each category (strengths, opportunities, weaknesses, and threats)in order to maximize the benefits of this evaluation and find their competitive advantage.

Competition

What products and companies will compete with you? List your major competitors:

(Names and addresses)

Will they compete with you across the board, or just for certain products, certain customers, or in certain locations?

Will you have important indirect competitors? (For example, video rental stores compete with theaters, although they are different types of businesses.)

How will your products or services compare with the competition?

Use the Competitive Analysis table below to compare your company with your two most important competitors. In the first column are key competitive factors. Since these vary from one industry to another, you may want to customize the list of factors.

In the column labeled Me, state how you honestly think you will stack up in customersʹ minds. Then check whether you think this factor will be a strength or a weakness for you. Sometimes it is hard to analyze our own weaknesses. Try to be very honest here. Better yet, get some disinterested strangers to assess you. This can be a real eye‐opener. And remember that you cannot be all things to all people. In fact, trying to be causes many business failures because efforts become scattered and diluted. You want an honest assessment of your firmʹs strong and weak points.

Now analyze each major competitor. In a few words, state how you think they compare. In the final column, estimate the importance of each competitive factor to the customer.

1 = critical; 5 = not very important.

Table 1: Competitive Analysis

Factor	Me	Strength	Weakness	Competitor A	Competitor B	Importance to Customer
Products
Price
Quality
Selection
Service
Reliability
Stability
Expertise
Company Reputation
Location
Appearance
Sales Method
Credit Policies
Advertising
Image

Now, write a short paragraph stating your competitive advantages and disadvantages.

Niche

Now that you have systematically analyzed your industry, your product, your customers, and the competition, you should have a clear picture of where your company fits into the world.

In one short paragraph, define your niche, your unique corner of the market.

Strategy

Now outline a marketing strategy that is consistent with your niche.

Promotion

How will you get the word out to customers?

Advertising: What media, why, and how often? Why this mix and not some other? Have you identified low‐cost methods to get the most out of your promotional budget?

Will you use methods other than paid advertising, such as trade shows, catalogs, dealer incentives, word of mouth (how will you stimulate it?), and network of friends or professionals?

What image do you want to project? How do you want customers to see you?

In addition to advertising, what plans do you have for graphic image support? This includes things like logo design, cards and letterhead, brochures, signage, and interior design (if customers come to your place of business).

Should you have a system to identify repeat customers and then systematically contact them?

Promotional Budget

How much will you spend on the items listed above?

Before startup? (These numbers will go into your startup budget.) Ongoing? (These numbers will go into your operating plan budget.) Pricing

Explain your method or methods of setting prices. For most small businesses, having the lowest price is not a good policy. It robs you of needed profit margin; customers may not care as much about price as you think; and large competitors can under price you anyway. Usually you will do better to have average prices and compete on quality and service.

Does your pricing strategy fit with what was revealed in your competitive analysis? Compare your prices with those of the competition. Are they higher, lower, the same?

Why?

How important is price as a competitive factor? Do your intended customers really make their purchase decisions mostly on price?

What will be your customer service and credit policies?

Proposed Location

Probably you do not have a precise location picked out yet. This is the time to think about what you want and need in a location. Many startups run successfully from home for a while.

You will describe your physical needs later, in the Operational Plan section. Here, analyze your location criteria as they will affect your customers.

Is your location important to your customers? If yes, how?

If customers come to your place of business:

Is it convenient? Parking? Interior spaces? Not out of the way? Is it consistent with your image?

Is it what customers want and expect?

Where is the competition located? Is it better for you to be near them (like car dealers or fast food restaurants) or distant (like convenience food stores)?

Distribution Channels

How do you sell your products or services? Retail

Direct (mail order, Web, catalog) Wholesale

Your own sales force

Agents

Independent representatives

Bid on contracts

Sales Forecast

Now that you have described your products, services, customers, markets, and marketing plans in detail, it’s time to attach some numbers to your plan. Use a sales forecast spreadsheet to prepare a month‐by‐month projection. The forecast should be based on your historical sales, the marketing strategies that you have just described, your market research, and industry data, if available.

You may want to do two forecasts: 1) a ʺbest guessʺ, which is what you really expect, and 2) a ʺworst caseʺ low estimate that you are confident you can reach no matter what happens.

Remember to keep notes on your research and your assumptions as you build this sales forecast and all subsequent spreadsheets in the plan. This is critical if you are going to present it to funding sources.

SECTION 6

Personal Financial Statement

Include personal financial statements for each owner and major stockholder, showing assets and liabilities held outside the business and personal net worth. Owners will often have to draw on personal assets to finance the business, and these statements will show what is available. Bankers and investors usually want this information as well.

SECTION 7 Startup Expenses and Capitalization

You will have many startup expenses before you even begin operating your business. It’s important to estimate these expenses accurately and then to plan where you will get sufficient capital. This is a research project, and the more thorough your research

efforts, the less chance that you will leave out important expenses or underestimate them.

Even with the best of research, however, opening a new business has a way of costing more than you anticipate. There are two ways to make allowances for surprise expenses. The first is to add a little “padding” to each item in the budget. The problem with that approach, however, is that it destroys the accuracy of your carefully wrought plan. The second approach is to add a separate line item, called contingencies, to account for the unforeseeable. This is the approach we recommend.

Talk to others who have started similar businesses to get a good idea of how much to allow for contingencies. If you cannot get good information, we recommend a rule of thumb that contingencies should equal at least 20 percent of the total of all other start‐ up expenses.

Explain your research and how you arrived at your forecasts of expenses. Give sources, amounts, and terms of proposed loans. Also explain in detail how much will be contributed by each investor and what percent ownership each will have.

SECTION 8 Financial Plan

The financial plan consists of a 12‐month profit and loss projection, a four‐year profit and loss projection (optional), a cash‐flow projection, a projected balance sheet, and a break‐even calculation. Together they constitute a reasonable estimate of your companyʹs financial future. More important, the process of thinking through the financial plan will improve your insight into the inner financial workings of your company.

12-Month Profit and Loss Projection

Many business owners think of the 12‐month profit and loss projection as the centerpiece of their plan. This is where you put it all together in numbers and get an idea of what it will take to make a profit and be successful.

Your sales projections will come from a sales forecast in which you forecast sales, cost of goods sold, expenses, and profit month‐by‐month for one year.

Profit projections should be accompanied by a narrative explaining the major assumptions used to estimate company income and expenses.

Research Notes: Keep careful notes on your research and assumptions, so that you can explain them later if necessary, and also so that you can go back to your sources when it’s time to revise your plan.

Three-Year Profit Projection (Optional)

The 12‐month projection is the heart of your financial plan. The Three-Year Profit projection is for those who want to carry their forecasts beyond the first year.

Of course, keep notes of your key assumptions, especially about things that you expect will change dramatically after the first year.

Projected Cash Flow

If the profit projection is the heart of your business plan, cash flow is the blood. Businesses fail because they cannot pay their bills. Every part of your business plan is important, but none of it means a thing if you run out of cash.

The point of this worksheet is to plan how much you need before startup, for preliminary expenses, operating expenses, and reserves. You should keep updating it and using it afterward. It will enable you to foresee shortages in time to do something

about them—perhaps cut expenses, or perhaps negotiate a loan. But foremost, you shouldn’t be taken by surprise.

There is no great trick to preparing it: The cash‐flow projection is just a forward look at your checking account.

For each item, determine when you actually expect to receive cash (for sales) or when you will actually have to write a check (for expense items).

You should track essential operating data, which is not necessarily part of cash flow but allows you to track items that have a heavy impact on cash flow, such as sales and inventory purchases.

You should also track cash outlays prior to opening in a pre‐startup column. You should have already researched those for your startup expenses plan.

Your cash flow will show you whether your working capital is adequate. Clearly, if your projected cash balance ever goes negative, you will need more start‐up capital. This plan will also predict just when and how much you will need to borrow.

Explain your major assumptions, especially those that make the cash flow differ from the Profit and Loss Projection. For example, if you make a sale in month one, when do you actually collect the cash? When you buy inventory or materials, do you pay in advance, upon delivery, or much later? How will this affect cash flow?

Are some expenses payable in advance? When?

Are there irregular expenses, such as quarterly tax payments, maintenance and repairs, or seasonal inventory buildup, that should be budgeted?

Loan payments, equipment purchases, and ownerʹs draws usually do not show on profit and loss statements but definitely do take cash out. Be sure to include them.

And of course, depreciation does not appear in the cash flow at all because you never write a check for it.

Opening Day Balance Sheet

A balance sheet is one of the fundamental financial reports that any business needs for reporting and financial management. A balance sheet shows what items of value are

held by the company (assets), and what its debts are (liabilities). When liabilities are subtracted from assets, the remainder is owners’ equity.

Use a startup expenses and capitalization spreadsheet as a guide to preparing a balance sheet as of opening day. Then detail how you calculated the account balances on your opening day balance sheet.

Optional: Some people want to add a projected balance sheet showing the estimated financial position of the company at the end of the first year. This is especially useful when selling your proposal to investors.

Break-Even Analysis

A break‐even analysis predicts the sales volume, at a given price, required to recover total costs. In other words, it’s the sales level that is the dividing line between operating at a loss and operating at a profit.

Expressed as a formula, break‐even is:

Break‐Even Sales =

Fixed Costs

1‐ Variable Costs

(Where fixed costs are expressed in dollars, but variable costs are expressed as a percent of total sales.)

Include all assumptions upon which your break‐even calculation is based.

Appendices

Include details and studies used in your business plan; for example:

• Brochures and advertising materials

• Industry studies

• Blueprints and plans

• Maps and photos of location

• Magazine or other articles

• Detailed lists of equipment owned or to be purchased

• Copies of leases and contracts

• Letters of support from future customers

• Any other materials needed to support the assumptions in this plan

• Market research studies

• List of assets available as collateral for a loan

Refining the Plan

The generic business plan presented above should be modified to suit your specific type of business and the audience for which the plan is written.

For Raising Capital

For Bankers

• Bankers want assurance of orderly repayment. If you intend using this plan to present to lenders, include:

o Amount of loan

o How the funds will be used

o What this will accomplish—how will it make the business stronger?

o Requested repayment terms (number of years to repay). You will

probably not have much negotiating room on interest rate but may be able to negotiate a longer repayment term, which will help cash flow.

o Collateral offered, and a list of all existing liens against collateral

For Investors

• Investors have a different perspective. They are looking for dramatic growth, and they expect to share in the rewards:

o Funds needed short‐term

o Funds needed in two to five years

o How the company will use the funds, and what this will accomplish for growth.

o Estimated return on investment

o Exit strategy for investors (buyback, sale, or IPO)

o Percent of ownership that you will give up to investors

o Milestones or conditions that you will accept

o Financial reporting to be provided

o Involvement of investors on the board or in management

For Type of Business

Manufacturing

• Planned production levels

• Anticipated levels of direct production costs and indirect (overhead) costs—how do these compare to industry averages (if available)?

• Prices per product line

• Gross profit margin, overall and for each product line

• Production/capacity limits of planned physical plant

• Production/capacity limits of equipment

• Purchasing and inventory management procedures

• New products under development or anticipated to come online after startup

Service Businesses

• Service businesses sell intangible products. They are usually more flexible than other types of businesses, but they also have higher labor costs and generally very little in fixed assets.

• What are the key competitive factors in this industry?

• Your prices

• Methods used to set prices

• System of production management

• Quality control procedures. Standard or accepted industry quality standards.

• How will you measure labor productivity?

• Percent of work subcontracted to other firms. Will you make a profit on subcontracting?

• Credit, payment, and collections policies and procedures

• Strategy for keeping client base

High Technology Companies

• Economic outlook for the industry

• Will the company have information systems in place to manage rapidly changing prices, costs, and markets?

• Will you be on the cutting edge with your products and services?

• What is the status of research and development? And what is required to:

o Bring product/service to market?

o Keep the company competitive?

• How does the company:

o Protect intellectual property?

o Avoid technological obsolescence?

o Supply necessary capital?

o Retain key personnel?

High‐tech companies sometimes have to operate for a long time without profits and sometimes even without sales. If this fits your situation, a banker probably will not want to lend to you. Venture capitalists may invest, but your story must be very good. You must do longer‐term financial forecasts to show when profit take‐off is expected to occur. And your assumptions must be well documented and well argued.

Retail Business

• Company image

• Pricing:

o Explain markup policies.

o Prices should be profitable, competitive, and in accordance with company image.

• Inventory:

o Selection and price should be consistent with company image.

o Inventory level: Find industry average numbers for annual inventory turnover rate (available in RMA book). Multiply your initial inventory investment by the average turnover rate. The result should be at least equal to your projected first yearʹs cost of goods sold. If it is not, you may not have enough budgeted for startup inventory.

• Customer service policies: These should be competitive and in accord with company image.

• Location: Does it give the exposure that you need? Is it convenient for customers? Is it consistent with company image?

• Promotion: Methods used, cost. Does it project a consistent company image?

• Credit: Do you extend credit to customers? If yes, do you really need to, and do you factor the cost into prices?

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